The top 10 are listed in alphabetical order by state:
1. Alabama 2nd – Republican Terry Everett has decided to retire. The two Republican challengers come from different parts of the district. Jay Love comes from suburban Montgomery and Harri Ann Smith comes from Dothan. Republicans have hinted that they prefer Love over Smith and this may be for two reasons. The Democratic nominee is Montgomery mayor Bright and he may be able to win over Republicans in suburban Montgomery. Smith may struggle and only be able to keep her base in Dothan. Jay Love on the other hand can keep his base and pick up the more conservative areas such as Dothan. The second reason why they may prefer Love is because Smith has demonstrated that she can be erratic. Her ads have concentrated mostly on illegal immigration and the cost of bread ($2 is what she says). Anyone who has been through this area (I have) knows that it is very conservative, yet Smith as the Republican challenger would be an easier defeat than Love. Let’s all hope that Smith prevails against Love. Outlook: Toss Up (Smith wins)/Likely Rep (Love wins)
2. Colorado 2nd – Udall is running for Senate. This is really a battle between Fitz-Gerald and Polis. Whichever wins the primary is guaranteed to win come November. Outlook: Safe Dem
3. Colorado 6th – To the relief of immigrants everywhere, Tancredo has decided to retire. The primary features Sec. of State and Iraq War vet Coffman, the son of the state’s former Senator, and two state senators, one that worked in the White House under Reagan and the other which was also an Iraq War vet. A four way primary may produce interesting results, yet many expect Coffman to prevail in the end. Outlook: Safe Rep
4. Florida 16th – Mahoney can sit back and watch three Republicans beat eachother up, all three of which have personal funds to throw into the race. The lateness of the primary, end of August, provides Mahoney with ample opportunity to race funds while the three Republicans continue to attack eachother. The end result of the primary will indeed result in bruised egos. Outlook: Toss Up
5. Kansas 2nd – Ryun is upset and wants to come back to Washington (he wasn’t considered a primary target by the DCCC in 2006, yet he lost). Hurting his chances to prevail is a primary challenge by State Treasurer Jenkins. The race can best be summarized as conservative vs. moderate. Should Ryun prevail, then Boyda is more safe. Should Jenkins prevail, then this race can become a little more interesting. Outlook: Leans Dem
6. Louisiana 4th – McCrery is retiring. Both the Republican and Democratic sides will feature primaries. The Republican three-way primary however will be more interesting. Fleming is a physician and Iraq War veteran. Gorman is a trucking executive. The Republican Party’s choice is Thompson, a former Chamber of Commerce President. The Democratic nomination will be secured more easily by District Attorney Carmouche. A Thompson vs. Carmouche race would be competitive, yet look at who’s endorsing Thompson (those that pushed Bush’s failed policies) and it’s easy to see that this red district could easily turn blue. Outlook: Toss Up
7. Michigan 7th – Before Democrats can challenge Walberg they need to settle an open primary. Renier came close to defeating Walberg last time, even though she had very little funding. The closeness of the race may have been a result of those disenchanted with moderate Schwarz being defeated. This time the DCCC has settled on State Senator Schauer who has demonstrated that he can raise funds. The closeness of the race last time, fundraising advantage of Schauer, and the ultra-conservative leanings of Walberg will surely make this a competitive race. It also doesn’t benefit Walberg to have McCain come to Michigan and state that free trade does indeed work. Outlook: Leans Dem
8. Missouri 9th – Hulshof has decided to run for Governor. Unfortunately, running from an unpopular president only to run for the seat of an unpopular Governor, makes it more likely that Hulshof will find himself in early retirement in the end. However, the Republican and Democratic primaries are both competitive in this district. The Republican field includes three state representatives and a former football star. The Democratic field (aka: the more realistic field) includes a state representative, county commissioner, ex state speaker, and an ex state senator. Rating this race is difficult until it’s determined who wins on the Republican side. Should the football star win, then this may be an easy Democratic victory. Outlook: Too Early to Call
9. New York 21st – McNulty has decided to retire and nine Democrats are at least interested in taking this Albany based seat, including the former GOP Chair of Albany, that may be an indicator of how well the GOP has been performing statewide. Whoever wins the Democratic primary is a safe bet come November. Outlook: Safe Dem
10. New York 26th – Tom Reynolds has decided to retire (lucky for him, since the only other option would have been electoral defeat). The Democratic primary features Davis, who has money vs. Powers, who has the Democratic Party endorsement. A third Democrat, Kryzan, has also entered the battlefield. The likelihood is that Powers prevails. The downside is that New York holds its primary in September, providing Powers with very little time to raise any funds spent against Davis. There is no way that a stubborn Davis will back down from this primary fight and he will spend freely in the meantime. While the Republican nominee is weak, a drawn out primary may leave Powers drained and wounded. Could an appointment in Washington force Davis out? Doubt it. Outlook: Toss Up
Here is another ten interesting, yet very “non-competitive” primaries remaining (ranked alphabetically by state):
1. Alabama 5th – No one expected that the GOP’s star recruit would be forced into a primary, yet that is exactly what happened. He narrowly missed the 50% mark. The Republicans have encouraged and tried to lightly nudge Guthrie out of the run-off race, yet she refuses to nudge. She poses no serious threat, yet the fact that Parker couldn’t win 50% of the vote against seriously underfunded challengers begs to question whether the Republicans even really have a chance here. Outlook: Lean Dem.
2. Arizona 1st – Renzi has decided to retire. Kirkpatrick is the DCCC choice, yet she is also being challenged by Titla who is American Indian, which in itself is an asset within this district. The edge goes to Kirkpatrick. The one thing that Kirkpatrick and Titla must avoid is a nasty primary. If American Indians feel their candidate was unfairly attacked, then this could present trouble for Kirkpatrick. The bad side for the Republicans is that they were unable to convince any formible challenger to compete for this seat. Outlook: Dem Pickup
3. Arizona 5th – Six Republicans have decided that they want to challenge Mitchell. The lateness of the primary (September) and any wounds remaining make it likely that whoever prevails in the primary will be an underdog come November. Outlook: Likely Dem
4. Connecticut 4th – Ever since Shays took control of this district (1987) there has never been a congressional primary. Whitnum succeeded in forcing the DCCC’s choice, Himes, into an August primary. Many suspect that this will only raise Himes profile, yet it should also question whether Himes was truly the best choice for Democrats. This district is not liberal (Rell and Lieberman both won here). Himes has aligned himself with the Lamont side of the party (not necessarily a wise manuever, any base of support Lieberman may have statewide lies here). However, he has also utilized free media including letters to the editor and walking 22 miles throughout the district. Unlike Shays opponent in the last two election cycles, Himes has no executive experience, and many view him as privileged, a concern that Whitnum has used in attacking Himes. Whitnum has only one signature issue: the H1B Visa program and how it cost her a job. Should she succeed in even winning 25% of the primary vote, then Himes may be in trouble. Outlook: Toss Up
5. Florida 8th – While Keller may be in trouble the Democratic field features three strong challengers: 06 nominee Stuart and 06 primary loser Grayson, both of whom are facing DCCC preferred choice Smith. Smith may find himself drained of funds and the ability to compete against Keller following the August primary. While the district is treading Democratic, a vicious primary can only help Keller in the end. Outlook: Likely Rep
6. Florida 10th – There has always been talk of Young retiring, yet it has been just that: talk. The Democratic primary features Sampson, the 2006 nominee versus Dunedin mayor Hackworth. Reform Party nominee for Governor, Linn is also part of the three-way primary. Hackworth, a former Republican, may have appeal here, whereas Young, while respected and popular, may suffer the same fate as similar Republicans in the past, such as Roth of Delaware (age and withering power). The only thing that would make this race competitive would be if Hackworth can raise serious funds for this Tampa-based media market. Outlook: Likely Rep.
7. Florida 24th – Scandal tainted Feeney barely won against underfunded challenger Curtis in 2006. Curtis is now back for victory, however the DCCC has other plans and has found a more serious challenger with funds in Kosmas. Unfortunately for Feeney is the fact that his overwhelming support for Bush, personal scandal, and his ultra-conservatism, do not fit well within the district. Kosmas should easily swat away Curtis. Unfortunately, like Davis in New York, he is not willing to drop out voluntarily. Outlook: Lean Dem
8. New Hampshire 1st – Bradley never expected to be unemployed following the 2006 election. The DCCC did not even spend any funds within the district, yet it may have been funding and the overflow of ads in the 2nd that assisted Shea-Porter in defeating Bradley. She was one of five seats, the others being Boyda in Kansas, Hall in New York, Loebsack in Iowa, and Yarmuth in Kentucky, where Democrats won even when the DCCC provided little to no funding. Now Bradley wants his seat back, yet he must face four other Republicans, including an ultra-conservative, in a primary before he gets that chance. Outlook: Lean Dem
9. New Hampshire 2nd – Five Republicans are fighting for a chance to be defeated by Hodes. As a freshman, Hodes has risen within the party. Whoever wins the Republican primary would at best be described as a sacrificial candidate against Hodes. Outlook: Safe Dem
10.New York 13th – Fossella had a love child, then the Republican nominee died. Now Republicans are back at the drawing board, yet the deadline is quickly approaching. The Democratic side features city councilman McMahon, a Staten Islander vs. Brooklyn attorney Harrison. The DCCC has decided to support McMahon, yet Harrison refuses to drop out. The Staten Islander will prevail in the primary and in the general election. As for the Republican Party, they can now consider this, their first lost seat of 2008. Outlook: Dem Pickup
Sorry, but this is a completely uninformed analysis. A minute of Web searching could have told you that Lee Whitnum is a marginal, lone candidate with no supporters who has some serious mental health problems. You can find a full rundown on her here, as well as her bizarre response. Among other items, she did not get a single vote at the Congressional convention, she had about 5 volunteers to gather petition signatures to force a primary, she has made legal threats against bloggers who simply report on her behavior and statements, she raised only $5,000 (almost all her own money) vs Himes’ $1.4 million, she relies on racist hate groups to inform her immigration policy, she called her opponent a Nazi because he talked to bloggers, and she seems to speak through multiple personalities.
Many view Himes as privileged? Who in the state has said this other than Whitnum in one of her many rants? He has a Wall Street background, but he’s also worked on affordable housing.
Could I have imagined a better candidate? Sure, though not for the reasons you cite. I have no role in the campaign, but Himes has the solid support of Democrats across the state who are committed to ousting New England’s only remaining House Republican. And he’s certainly a stronger candidate than the previous uninspired nominee, Diane Farrell, who equivocated on Iraq, refusing to commit to a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq and who was outflanked by Shays, who at least during his campaign, called for a timeline.
As to whether Jim Himes should have aligned himself with Lamont or Lieberman, can I remind you that Lamont was the Democratic nominee? That Lieberman is campaigning for McCain in a particularly obnoxious manner? That Bush and McCain are phenomenally unpopular in CT? That Lieberman’s approval rating is the lowest it has ever been? That Connecticut voters are even less likely to vote for McCain if he chooses Lieberman as a running mate? That Lieberman would not be re-elected today (with independents also turning against him)?
Whitnum is an annoying, embarrassing distraction and a waste of time and attention. Not a threat, a hint of a rift in the party, or an indication of anything about the strength of Himes’ candidacy.
Since I am represented by Shays, I can inform you that I am fully aware of whom both Himes and Whitnum are. In fact, I have spoken with both in the past. I was not thoroughly convinced that Himes understood the needs of the district and Whitnum is running a campaign based on her own needs. Himes faces a credibility factor when it comes to affordable housing (he lives in a million dollar home). Stamford has the most expensive median rent in the nation. Furthermore, Whitnum was completely shut out of the Democratic convention. Yes she is erratic and fanatic (that is true), yet she accomplished what liberal Connecticut Democrats have always sought to prevent, an open primary system whereas candidates are voted by the people and not a select few within the party.
If Whitnum does manage to take even 25% of the primary vote based on her $5K campaign loan and the fact that she is a weak opponent, then I agree that Himes has problems. I would say however that liberal bloggers have exagerrated some of Whitnum’s views. One can easily conclude that she may actually be correct in regards to the H1B Visa, a program that is most likely to affect college graduates. The 4th is home to several financial service companies and the H1B Visa program may indeed have a negative impact here.
Also Farrell lost because she ran a horrible campaign. She didn’t focus on local issues which are important to this district (transportation, affordable housing, taxes, education, and health care). Instead her campaign was exclusively based on the war in Iraq. Her second mistake was allowing liberal campaign staffers to hijack her campaign in this moderate district.
Finally, while I agree that Shays needs to be replaced. I do not believe that Himes is the correct Democrat (nor is Whitnum). I believe that other fellow moderates will reach the same conclusion in the months to come. If I voted for Farrell twice, yet find myself not buying Himes, then how many other moderate Democrats are in this same position?
Yes Connecticut liberals do indeed hate primaries. There is no doubt about it. If they had confidence in the people’s choice, then the state would do away with the closed party system and embrace an open primary system. How many members of the state legislature are going to face a primary? Virtually none. The only primary in August for federal office will be Himes vs. Whitnum.
However, I would argue that the open primary is best for the residents. The party decided Malloy was the best pick for Governor in 2006, yet the voters decided DeStefano was. In regards to the Lamont vs. Lieberman race, you may be happy to know that I voted for Lamont, not because I necessarily agreed with his politics, but because I felt Lieberman was supporting an escalation for war. Also, I must say that Lamont’s campaign ads were atrocious. His campaign appeared to be thoroughly organized, yet there was only one message: The war in Iraq and Lieberman must go. Unfortunately the voters didn’t buy it. However, I wish Lamont did win because I think he would have been a very effective Senator in comparison to Lieberman today.
Anyone that lives in Connecticut knows that the liberals do run the state. They control super majorities in both the state House and senate (thereby giving them the power to override a Rell veto, such as was done recently with a minimum wage bill). However, none of these same ultra-liberals, with the exception of DeLauro, who represents two of the more liberal cities in the state (New Haven and Middletown) could ever get themselves elected on the federal level. Fortunately for the sake of the state as a whole, the liberals will soon find themselves without much control, since moderates are beginning to rebel against an ideology that ignores important issues here such as taxes, affordable housing, and transportation.
Also the state as a whole is moderate, yet also liberal in some areas. The moderate distinction would apply to Fairfield (except Bridgeport) and Litchfield counties. The eastern part of the state, especially the districts of Courtney and DeLauro, are fairly liberal. Larson represents a moderate to liberal district and Murphy represents a moderate district – New Britain and Meriden are fairly liberal, while Danbury and Waterbury are fairly conservative. Furthermore, some of the largest cities in the state are represented by ultra-liberal mayors (Hartford, Stamford, New Haven, and Bridgeport). In my honest opinion all four are absolute failures.
Just because the congressional delegation is not ultra-liberal, does not mean that the state is not run by liberals. As I stated, both legislatures, most of the major cities, and all elected statewide office positions (except Gov. and Lt. Gov) are held by liberals. Connecticut is treading moderate and will start dumping liberal politicians once an open-primary system is applied (liberals are anxiously fighting against a constitutional convention this November that would give citizens more of a voice).
A new face of the Democratic Party has been emerging here for some time and Lieberman is not the first Democrat to lose a primary and then prevail to victory. Waterbury mayor Jarjura, a conservative Democrat, lost the Democratic primary in 2005, then went on to win as a write-in candidate for mayor. Liberals didn’t defeat Lieberman any greater than moderates rejected Lamont.
Why are we talking about Connecticut politics overall when this has to do with non-incumbent primary races? Yes, the liberals, State Senator Williams and McDonald, do indeed dominate the state political spectrum. However, as I stated earlier, it is only a matter of time before the entire liberal establishment finds itself falling apart in Connecticut (divided between moderates and ulta-liberals). Also, to appease those who have a large amount of confidence in Himes prevailing vs. Shays, let me just make the prediction early on. Shays vs. Himes – Leans Shays
If Lamont couldn’t win in the district against a damaged Lieberman, what concludes anyone to believe that a fellow Lamont liberal, Himes, could win against Shays. Shays needs replacement, however Himes is not the right choice.
you should move. Because you are have no idea what you are talking about.
It will be interesting to see what the Q2 fundraising numbers look like.
Right now it looks like the Democratic favorite is Judy Baker and the Republican favorite is Bob Onder.
Baker’s closest challenger is Steve Gaw and Onder’s closest challenger is Blaine Luetkemeyer.
Football star Brock Olivo stumbled badly out of the gates and probably blew his chance at the Republican nomination.
Another youtube political career casualty….